Classification, Pace, Prize Money and Draw Bias.
Spotting a winner
Racehorses develop to full maturity at different rates.
It may be another year or more before an early 2 year old sprint winner can be said to have long-term prospects.
It is impossible to gauge the speed of a youngster’s physical development from the outset.
At the beginning of a horses career there are many unknowns such as:
- The horses final build.
- How its pedigree will affect it.
- The class of the horse.
- The stables at which it will train.
- What will be its favourite distance.
- Will it be a mudlark or a natural firm goer.
Early on all you can use are the results and ability the youngster has shown in its early races.
Analyzing horse races
Analysis of horse races simply means interpreting the results.
It does not mean describing the action.
There is a mountain of information to include in analysis of any given horse race and not all of it can possibly be objective.
The aim of analysis is simply to determine whether a horses form is good or bad. Whether a horse is reliable or not.
Where to start?
Classification
The overall quality of a race can be determined by a basic classification which ranges between Class A (highest quality) all the way down to Class H (the lowest quality of regional racing).
The higher classified races involve better horses and better horses produce more reliable form. In turn, more reliable form produces more reliable results.
The contrasting reliability between high and low classification racing has been blurred slightly with the introduction of lower quality All Weather racing.
All Weather tracks produce more reliable form from lower quality horses due to the consistency of speed provided by relatively equal/ even ground conditions.
For example, high class group races on turf are often run almost entirely at a trot with a 3 furlong sprint finish at the end. This can render any attempt at form study totally unreliable.
Prize money
Another indicator pointing towards reliable form is prize money.
It goes without saying that when more money is at stake, owners and trainers will be preparing and entering better horses in the race.
This does not always make it any easier to find a winner.
What it does mean is that your form research may be better rewarded at the big festivals of Ascot, Cheltenham and York rather than the less predictable regional racing at Hamilton or Chepstow for example.
Pace
Another key determinant of unreliable form is inconsistent pace.
Whether the race is run at a trot with a sprint finish, or whether the leaders go off way too fast only to get drawn back later on.
Either way professional inplay Betfair punters will analyze the pattern that a race is taking as it unfolds before them on fast live digital feeds.
Successful inplay punters will make instant decisions as to whether the pattern of the race is set to benefit or deter the particular horse or horses they are following.
Draw bias
Certain courses are known to have particular draw bias where one side of the track is recognized as traveling faster than the other.
This can be for a host of reasons that only the stewards and long time course walkers will know about.
Factors may include:
- Uneven watering.
- Compaction by decades of pounding from horses hooves.
- Compaction by heavy vehicles on the track.
In Part 2 of this series i explain how and why you should look for “improvement” in racehorses.
In Part 3 we look at pedigree, potential and breeding. I also outline the statistical indexes that you can use to measure speed and stamina.
In Part 4 we look at the benefits of paddock watching and how to visually examine a racehorse to spot a potential winner in advance of the media and the crowds.
Bet Fair and Bet Well.
Related posts:
23 Apr
6:35 am on October 8th, 2009
Please prove what your saying with Archeological facts and dates about North Africa being Caucasian. And please do not give me the Barbarians or the Berbers as they are called today, give me the original inhabitants in that area. Thank you
6:35 am on October 8th, 2009
I will be sure to spread knowledge of this book throughout the world.
6:35 am on October 8th, 2009
Also i was just reading also that the matrilineages in the Northwestern Berber-speakers turn out to be of more recent Eurasian origina. Thus making the present fair-skinned Berber population the product of ancient of black Africans mixing after theBronze Age with white concubines or slave women.
6:35 am on October 8th, 2009
BTW – Please STATE which genetics you are talking about and which WHITE populations those genes come FROM.
Google – “E1b1b1″ and click “Images”
Google – “Battaglia 2008 dna” and read his study, Read Cruciani.
The time African E-M78 and many of its African SUB-Clades comes in to being is the same time AND AREA THIS author is speaking of in THIS video. They come into being in Areas of the Badarian and the Naqada, Ta-Seti, Qustul, Nabta Playa, Wadi Halfa – Northen Sudan / Southern Egypt = NEGRO
6:35 am on October 8th, 2009
No they dont!
Y-Chromosome Genetics PROVES Ethiopians carrying E1b1b1 (M35) went INTO Nubia where mutation E1b1b1a (M78) occurred. E1b1b1a (M78) then went north into Egypt and further north into the middle east and Europe. ALL North African, some in the middle east, others even EUROPE have SUB-Mutations of that original Ethiopian Y-Chomosome Marker E-M35.
Egyptians also show SIGNIFICANT ancestry from WEST Africa shown via marker E-M2.
Are you saying Ethiopians and West Africans are white?
6:35 am on October 8th, 2009
Genetics say they were Caucasian people. You are getting them confused with the Nubians.
6:35 am on October 8th, 2009
Egyptologists say NOTHING about Egyptians being “White”
Secondly Genetics PROVES two things
1 – North Africans DO infact come from Ethiopia based on Y-Chromosome studies.
2 – Ethiopians and other Central Africans who have brown skin (Like Ancient and SOME modern Day Egyptians) are NOT “Caucasoid” as they have no admixture from anyone originating from the “Caucus” and some have NO non African admixture at all.
Egyptians LITERALLY come from Sub Saharan East and West Africa. Genetics DONT lie.
6:35 am on October 8th, 2009
That’s just one guy. Besides, I’m gonna believe what the majority of Egyptologists believe, which is that Egypt was a White civilization. That stuff about the Egyptians coming from the south is about the afterlife, not the physical world.
6:35 am on October 8th, 2009
Previous Anthropologists such as Carlton S Coon places “Caucasians” in North, East AND Central Africa. He and others placed the “North African Caucasian” homeland in Ethiopia, saying they are the SOURCE of such migrations.
Furthermore Genetic lineages of Y-Dna in North Africa are subsets of East African genetic mutations of African Haplogroup E, E3b or E-M35 in particular.
Ethiopians are not and have never been “Caucasian” East Africans POPULATED north Africa. White North African = Mixed.
6:35 am on October 8th, 2009
Africans from Asia? That’s even stupider than Black Egyptians. North Africa is different from the rest of the continent, both in geography and ethnicity. The people of North Africa have been Caucasian throughout history. North Africa is the ONLY place in Africa to have native Caucasian people. Saying all Africans are Black is like saying all Asians are Chinese.
6:35 am on October 8th, 2009
Nice way to weasel out of “Posting your sources” You Clowns are amazing, in all that evidence you have i can SURELY sum it up in a conclusion that goes something like “Ancient Egyptians were White because most Africans are White – Even though they have Brown and Black skin.”
This is what it ALWAYS comes down to : You Euroclowns claim Arabs in order to claim Ethiopians in order to claim Nubians in order to claim Egyptians. You then end up saying ALL Africans came from Asia.
Sigh.
6:35 am on October 8th, 2009
Keep telling yourself that. Maybe believing the Black Egyptian fairy tale helps dull the sting of belonging to a race responsible for inventing peanut butter and nothing else. Have a nice day.
6:35 am on October 8th, 2009
Few people today properly distinguish between “Israel”… a bloodline issuing from Isaacs son Jacob, and his 12 sons… and “Jews”… who were NOT of “the bloodline”… but adherents to the Mosaic Law. See Esther 1:1 and 8:17. This is THE ENTIRE PERSIAN EMPIRE. People “became Jews” for fear of the Jews. “Judaism” is a RELIGION – NOT a BLOODLINE. “Israel” IS a bloodline. See IKings 10:13. Solomon conveyed that bloodline “Royalty” to Sheba… she bore a son to him… Menelik 1 of Ethiopia
6:35 am on October 8th, 2009
I call BS, Genetics (Modern and ancient) really says they were/are Africans. No white people are native to Africa…Except for albinos. Anyone in Africa that is white is mixed. Also anyone in Africa that is BROWN Skinned is not “Caucasian”.
They have African skeletons, African skulls, African language, and African culture. There is nothing “Caucasian” about any AFRICAN that has brown Skin.
You can play that “Dark Skin Caucasian in INDIA” mess if you want but in Africa, Brown skin = Negro.
6:35 am on October 8th, 2009
By White I mean someone of a Caucasian race/ethnic group. This would be a very long comment if I posted all my sources here. There are numerous books on the subject and have been too many documentaries that reconstruct what the face of Pharoh “insert name here” looked like. If you want more information, just send me a message.
6:35 am on October 8th, 2009
HoundofOdin,
” As for the Egyptians being Black, DNA tests, facial reconstructions, and first hand accounts point to them being a mostly White people. ”
Who would you consider “White” people? Please provide the timeframe of when the “whites” arrived and conquered the egyptians and where was their land of origin. Also, what refs are you using for the DNA, facial reconstructions and 1st hand accts. I would be curious who the refs are and the date of the material. Just curious. Tks
6:35 am on October 8th, 2009
I think you are catching on to what I’m trying to say. I’m just not explaining myself very well. As for the Egyptians being Black, DNA tests, facial reconstructions, and first hand accounts point to them being a mostly White people. Their modern descendents are the Copts who still live in Egypt. They even speak a language derived from the Ancient Egyptian tongue.
6:35 am on October 8th, 2009
HoundofOdin
Hmm…. All modern Americans aren’t British. Just as Modern Egyptians aren’t your Ancient Egyptians but an mixture of countless invasians which took place over a period of time. For example: the American forefathers were British I presume just as the forefathers of the Pharonic civilization were indiginous Africans. The Egyptians didn’t get most or parts of their culture from black people because they were black themselves.
6:35 am on October 8th, 2009
I think you misunderstood me. What I meant is saying that the Egyptians being Black just because they got most or parts of their culture from a Black people is like saying all modern Americans are British because the British colonies rebelled and formed their own nation. It doesn’t make a whole lot of sense.
6:35 am on October 8th, 2009
The book is Stone Fox by John Reynolds Gardiner.
6:35 am on October 8th, 2009
oh gosh that sounds familiar, i probably read it in like, elementary school, and can't remember the name. King of the Wind maybe? or..one of the many Black Stallion books? i dunno this is gonna drive me nuts it sounds so familiar
6:35 am on October 8th, 2009
I reported the first answerer.
Sorry though, I do not know, I just hate racists.
6:35 am on October 8th, 2009
Zemusobronu or Kroidusili
the emphasis on the start of each name with the Z and the K is powerful
Also they sound sort of evil, they have a lot of harsh sounds in the names, which makes them sound fairly good for bad guys
6:35 am on October 8th, 2009
Hitler said it in "Mein Kampf"
6:35 am on October 8th, 2009
There were several matches but I think that in the end the Flash won. Of course he must've. Barry Allen ran faster than death and came back from the Speed Force over 20 years later!
6:35 am on October 8th, 2009
Depending on the Sports Book you go to, you will have all that information.
I suggest the Palace Station or Hilton for betting horses if your looking for that exact info, as they do carry that.
6:35 am on October 8th, 2009
1. Yes. He is a Moor and Desdemona was Milky. There are always interracial hatreds and hardships and if Othello were dark from birth, He knew well the ugliness of the Demons that possessed him to go mad and kill his love.
2. Maybe, Who can really say?
3. Iago is a creep and a loner, That is different.
6:35 am on October 8th, 2009
HANDICAPPING THE INSIDERS WAY/ THE J.O.T. SYSTEM.
By D.B. Venturo Bart Publishing Co. 891 Taylor Rise Victor, NY. 14564.